Originally reported Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice: RSS Feed on 2024-10-24 08:00:00.
- Prison and jail populations have decreased because of falling crime and low police clearance rates that present DAs with far fewer arrested persons to prosecute.
What, then, explains why property crimes, violent crimes, and incarcerations all have fallen even as incarcerations per arrest have risen substantially? How can conservative areas be incarcerating more people per capita while liberal areas send a higher proportion of arrested persons to jail or prison? The reason is that police are clearing (solving) far fewer crimes reported to them today than in the past, which will be explained in greater detail in a following report.
Conclusion
California’s criminal justice data consistently contradicts the prevailing false narratives about crime and progressive reforms. Criminal justice reforms have not increased crime in California. Law enforcement can still hold arrested persons responsible for crime. Compared to liberal areas, conservative counties have higher crime, violence (especially homicide), and related trends despite incarcerating a greater share of their populations. Vital statistics on deaths from homicides, guns, and drug/alcohol overdoses reinforce these conservative-area failures. Californians are safer from crime, drugs, violence, and other ills when fewer people are incarcerated and with criminal justice reforms in place.
Method
Murder, homicide, shoplifting, and other crime statistics are from the California Department of Justice’s Open Justice tabulations (DOJ, 2024). Imprisonments are provided by the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR, 2024). Jailing statistics are compiled by the Board of State and Community Corrections (BSCC, 2024). Rates are calculated per 100,000 population for each year and set of counties, sorted by politics, for 2000 (before 2010’s justice reform era) through 2023. Trends are calculated by using regression equations that incorporate all years’ values into a trendline, not by using beginning and ending years, which typically are “cherry-picked” by interests to produce the desired result and thus are not credible.
References
Board of State and Community Corrections (BSCC). (2024). Data and research. Jail profile survey. Juvenile detention profile survey. At: https://www.bscc.ca.gov/m_data….
California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR). (2024). Felon prison population 2017 – 23 (special data request). Offender data points. Adult characteristics. See: https://www.cdcr.ca.gov/research/.
California Department of Finance (DOF). (2024). Demographic research unit. Estimates. At: https://dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Demographics/Estimates/.
California Department of Justice (DOJ). (2024). Open Justice. Crimes and clearances. At: https://openjustice.doj.ca.gov/exploration/crime-statistics/crimes-clearances.
California Secretary of State. (2024). Election results. 2020 and 2022 general elections. At: https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results.
Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (CJCJ). (2024). California Law Enforcement Agencies Are Spending More But Solving Fewer Crimes. At: https://www.cjcj.org/reports-publications/report/california-law-enforcement-agencies-are-spending-more-but-solving-fewer-crimes.
Jones, B. & Gallagher, J. (2024). The California Dream is fading. Democrats should stop resisting bipartisan solutions. Sacramento Bee. At: https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/op-ed/article292677204.html.
Kasparian, A. (2024). Leaked emails show Gavin Newsom’s SLEAZY effort to win presidency. The Young Turks, 29 June 2024. At: https://www.youtube.com/watch?….
Lambert, HR. (2023). HIGH CRIMES: Sheriff says drugs are fueling the crime crisis in California. Fox News, 6 May 2023. At: https://www.foxnews.com/us/high-crimes-sheriff-says-drugs-fueling-crime-crisis-california?msockid=07c08f7d1ea768183a349b0e1f1d6994.
Please note: Jurisdictions submit their data to the official state or nationwide databases maintained by appointed governmental bodies. While every effort is made to review data for accuracy and to correct information upon revision, CJCJ cannot be responsible for data reporting errors made at the county, state, or national level.
Contact: For more information about this topic or to schedule an interview, please contact CJCJ Communications at (415) 621‑5661 x. 103 or cjcjmedia@cjcj.org.
Source: www.cjcj.org
Posted: 1756362615
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